To solve complex hydrological problems and interpret the underlying message of different hydrological signatures requires basic understanding of hydrological processes and their complex interactions. These hydrological interactions play a critical role in defining the future water availability under changing climate.
The climate change has drastically altered the course of Hydrological regimes that ultimately translate into water availability either “too much water (i.e., Floods)” or “too less water (i.e., Droughts)”. Both flood and drought are the tipping points that shape water security of a regions.
SYDRO, together with its project partners have been given an assignment named “Water Risks and Resilience in Urban-Rural Areas in Southern Africa – Co-Production of Hydro-Climate Services for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation (WaRisCo)” by BMBF (German Ministry of Education and Research) to carry out a study focusing on hydrological extreme events (Floods and droughts).
In this study, SYDRO will feed the hydrological memory of its in-house developed TALSIM hydrological model using observed as well as future climate change scenarios and then provide probabilistic projections of hydrological regimes changes in the Integrated Upper Vaal River System and KwaZulu-Natal River Systems in South Africa (see WaRisCo project description).
The WaRisCo project is first of its kind in South Africa that is going to focus on the hydrological extremes (Floods and Droughts), and it will provide the stakeholder a critical information to devise their disaster risk reduction plans. The official kick-off meeting as well as stakeholders’ interactions have been initiated with all relevant stakeholder where SYDRO together with its project partners presented the initial idea of developing flood and drought focused hydrological models for KwaZulu-Natal and Integrated Upper Vaal River System (IUVRS).
A specialized module will be developed to handle complex water transfers within (South Africa) and outside (Lesotho) the Integrated Upper Vaal River System (IUVRS).
SYDRO also participated in the recent Water Security in Africa (WASA) conference where Dr.-Ing. Muhammad Fraz Ismail highlighted the work done by SYDRO in the domain of water resources management. It has been highlighted, how SYDRO through its hydrological model (Talsim) will help in modelling the hydrological extreme events. It will help curb water mismanagement and water insecurity using its state-of-the-art hydrological modelling tool in combination with a robust decision support system.
Presently, our hydrological modelling team is busy setting up a drought focused hydrological model for the IUVRS to be better informed about a “day-zero” like situation. Subsequently, a flood focused hydrological model will be set up for the KwaZulu-Natal River system to model the probability of a mega flooding event (e.g. Durban Flood – 2022) under climate change and land use change scenarios.