Mid to long-term forecast for the Lower Mekong River Basin, methodology and implementation plan

Since 2005, the Mekong River Committee runs an operational Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre. The MRC decided to engage in long-range streamflow forecast for the Lower Mekong River Basin. The project aims at identifying and testing methods for long-range streamflow forecasts based on precipitation prediction with numerical weather models, satellite and remote sensing and/or stochastic streamflow generation for the Lower Mekong Basin. Based on the test results a concept for long-range streamflow forecast was determined. The evaluation resulted in the selection of dynamic weather forecast models in combination with stochastic streamflow generation and rainfall-runoff models. Already existing tools and the software framework were considered in the evaluation process. Important aspects were the identification of users which are considered as beneficiaries and their requirements of extended streamflow forecasts. This included the identification of possible lead time and frequency of dissemination based on the necessity in which users require this information. The implementation is considered under the software framework of FEWS (Deltares).